Anthropogenic Emissions – Pollution Forecast

Anthropogenic Emissions – Pollution Forecast

A breath of fresh air in the city starts with all of us! “As many of us live in cities, ensuring a sustainable urban environment is vital” (European Environment Agency)

Service Description and Applications:

The service aims to study and understand air quality “from the bottom up,” starting from anthropogenic pollution sources to personal exposure, covering a wide spatio-temporal scale, multiple environments, and alternative exposure pathways. It includes the following applications:

1. Development and continuous updating of the mapped database of anthropogenic pollutant emissions at national and local levels, named Flexible Emission Inventory for Greece and the Greater Athens Area (FEI-GREGAA). This database is a tool for analyzing and understanding the characteristics of pollution sources, aiming to develop emission reduction strategies. It covers the period 2006 – 2022 and is continuously updated with new pollutants and sources, following EU policies and current scientific developments. FEI-GREGAA has been developed in a GIS environment according to the EMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook, following a bottom-up/top-down approach with data from official sources (ELSTAT, EUROSTAT, YPEN, YME, etc.). It provides hourly emissions of gaseous pollutants, particulate matter, heavy metals, organic pollutants (e.g., BaP), and greenhouse gases from anthropogenic activities on a 2×2 km² grid (Greece) and 1×1 km² grid (Attica). Emission data (monthly values) distributed on a 6×6 km² grid can be provided free of charge upon request for the pollutants CO, NH₃, NMVOCs, NO_x, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5.
2. POLLUTION FORECAST: Using the FEI-GREGAA database as input (in hourly format and on a 6×6 km² grid), numerical simulations of air quality are performed for the entire Greek territory with the WRF (meteorological)/CAMx (photochemical) model system, in collaboration with the METEO Unit of IERSD. The air quality forecast is presented daily on the website https://meteo.gr/ in the “POLLUTANTS” section (https://meteo.gr/cf-aqi.cfm?city_id=86). The information is provided in the form of the European Air Quality Index (AQI), which reflects the potential impact of air pollution on health and is calculated based on the concentrations of the following pollutants: particulate matter (PM₁₀), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂). Hourly concentration values are fed by the WRF/CAMx (meteorological/photochemical) model system, and based on these, the index is calculated every three hours for the next 3 days. The AQI helps the public better understand air quality and take protective measures in cases of high pollution. The forecast is updated every 24 hours to improve calculations.
3. IMPACT ANALYSIS, QUANTIFICATION, AND FORECAST: Through the use of specialized software (e.g., AIRQ+), statistical analysis of the air pollution data collected by the team is performed, and in combination with official socioeconomic data, a comprehensive framework for assessing impacts on human health due to air pollution exposure is created.

The service is intended for:

✓ The emission inventory service is addressed to researchers and specialized scientists who wish to use pollutant emission data for studies such as population exposure, assessment of pollution impacts in specific areas, comparison with other similar databases in other countries/regions, air pollution management for climate change mitigation, and public health protection, etc.

✓ The air quality forecast service is addressed to the general public who wish to know more about air quality in their area, as well as to organizations/businesses/researchers who wish to use the simulation results to study physicochemical processes in the atmosphere, the effect of meteorological conditions on air quality, the effect of anthropogenic activities, etc.

✓ All team services are addressed to competent bodies, such as Municipalities, Regions, Ministries, Independent Authorities, interested in utilizing data, with the aim of supporting the development of policies and measures for the protection of the local/regional environment and human health.

Methodologies and Tools Applied:

✓ ArcGIS (tool) ✓ CAMx (tool) ✓ AirQ+ v.2.2 (WHO, 2021) ✓ SPSS (tool, methodology) ✓ EMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook (methodology)

Methodologies and Tools Applied:

The service is provided by the Urban Environmental Sustainability Group (UESG) of IERSD. Responsible for providing data regarding pollutant emissions or long-term simulations of pollutant dispersion or quantification of the air pollution problem in areas of interest across Greece: